#Defiance actions how to

The most vivid example of this shift was a scandal that erupted in Serbia in April, after Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the Kosovo precedent to justify Moscow’s recognition of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics in Ukraine. To weather the coming storm, the narrative goes, Serbia must treat relations with Moscow more critically, prioritizing its national interests over blind loyalty to the Russian brethren. In his statements for the domestic audience and in government-controlled media, Vucic is now emphasizing turbulent times ahead. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made this scheme unsustainable without major adjustments, which are already under way. Finally, when talking to the Kremlin, Vucic portrays himself as the last pro-Russian bulwark preventing Serbia from being completely absorbed by the West. He threatens the West with the strong pro-Russian sentiment in Serbian society, claiming to be the one politician capable of keeping the country on a pro-Western path.

#Defiance actions how to

At home, he touts Russia as a mighty and benevolent world power, which only he knows how to deal with. He has been playing the Russian card in several different ways, depending on the audience. To begin with, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has never been sincere in his pompous pro-Russian rhetoric and is even less so today. The two countries’ ostentatious alliance has been hollowing out for years, and the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to bring this process to completion. Still, beyond this celebration of brotherhood and solidarity, other less obvious developments bode ill for the Russian presence in Serbia. In the April parliamentary elections, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, pro-Russian with minor reservations, received 44 percent of the vote, while political movements with even stronger pro-Russian agendas gained an aggregate of 25 percent, leaving little hope for politicians who want to bring Serbia closer to the EU’s policies toward Moscow. Leading Serbian media uncritically reproduce Moscow’s version of the events Gazprom still controls local oil giant NIS and Belgrade refuses point-blank to join the EU sanctions against Russia. According to polls, only 26 percent of Serbs blame Moscow for the invasion, while the majority view the West and Ukraine as the real culprits. The war in Ukraine has made Russia’s seemingly omnipresent influence in Serbia even more conspicuous.

But is Russia able to deliver on its promises?

When neighboring Bulgaria, North Macedonia, and Montenegro closed their airspace to Lavrov’s plane, making the visit impossible, the Russian leadership minced no words in expressing its outrage and called for redoubling efforts to preserve the country’s “eternal friendship” with Serbia. On June 6–7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was scheduled to visit Belgrade-just days ahead and in clear defiance of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s June 10 trip to Serbia. On May 29, the presidents of the two countries spoke on the phone and reached a gas agreement that secured Serbia another three years of Russian gas at a price several times lower than the current one in the EU. The events of the past few days have shown that Russia remains determined to preserve its special relationship with Serbia despite its confrontation with Europe over the war in Ukraine.